How to Handicap a Horse Race

Let’s take a closer look at those past performances and find out how we look for the potential winner of today’s race, using five key factors to get there. There are typically 6 to 10 horses entered in a race and we want to weed out non-contenders early. Look at the finish position in the last 3 races of each of today’s entries, and compare to the number of entrants in each of those races. If he did not beat at least half the field in one or more of those races, throw him out of contention today.

Here is how we compare the remaining contenders:

1.       Speed ratings

Look at the last 3 speed ratings and run an average (in your head or with a calculator), and jot that number over to the right side of your racing form.

2.       Class

Look at all ten of his races in the past performance lines and find one or more horse races that he won. If he did not win any, find one or more races that he finished within 2 lengths of the winner. If these are claiming races, jot down that claiming price (c10,000). If they are allowance or stakes races, jot down the purse amount ($35,000).

3.       Condition

Look at the days since his last race; we want that to be less than 45 days. Also look at all ten races in the form to see if there are big gaps in between race dates. Most horses need to ‘race into condition’, meaning they might need 2, 3, or more races before they are ready for a top effort.

4.       Jockey

We want a jockey that wins at least 10 percent of his races (a statistical average), preferably a much higher number than that. We would like to see a jockey that excels in this type of race [(sprint- less than a mile) (route- one mile or more) (turf- race on grass)].

5.       Trainer

We want to look at the same statistics for the trainers as we did the jockeys. There will also usually be some other relevant statistics listed like second after a claim, second off the layoff, switching from turf to dirt, etc. I don’t want to list all the angles as much as I want to stress the statistics. If you use 10% as a norm, then you know above 10% is good and below 10% is bad.

Before we continue, let’s discuss handicapping and whether it is an art or a science. The science is the gathering and comparing of hard information and statistics. The art is knowing how to blend this information and get a solid opinion of how a particular race will be run, and who has the best chance of winning. Neither is easy, and I think you need both, with the art usually coming together with experience.

Okay, we should have quite a bit of information about the race. We have speed ratings written down, a class number for each contender, an idea whether a horse is in racing condition, and statistics about each jockey and trainer. Now we take our top three speed rating horses, and our top three class rating horses and eliminate the ones that do not meet our condition qualifications. Continue the elimination process with jockeys and trainers that do not meet the 10% minimum guidelines on our remaining contenders.

You may be down to one horse at this time, and he becomes your selection. If there is more than one horse left, it is time to take the one that has the highest speed rating and the highest class rating. If you still can’t split them at this point, revisit all of your statistics and make a call on which one ‘looks’ the best. Remember the art of handicapping? This is it!

Good luck.